Lafayette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

660
FXUS64 KLCH 251110
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
610 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight Risk of severe weather outlined by the SPC
  along / north of HWY 190 to Toledo Bend. A Marginal Risk covers
  the remainder of the forecast area to the coast.

- Tonight`s setup continues to be a highly conditional severe risk
  (wind and possibly large hail) for storms thru the dawn hours.
  Guidance favors the greatest coverage across the I-49 corridor
  and east, however, a low end threat remains over interior
  southeast TX.

- Temperatures are forecast to climb well above normal through the
  middle of next week, potentially reaching the low 90s north of
  I-10.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

TLDR;

Broken line of showers and thunderstorms with stronger embedded wind
segments and heavy downpours is moving southeast from the SHV metro.
The environment points to a continued southeast motion with an
arrival to Vernon/Rapides/Avoyelles roughly around 200 to 300 AM LT
before riding down the Atchafalaya Basin into the sunrise hours.
Confidence is low for intensity, but based on the fcst environment,
storms will most likely not maintain a very strong severe threat but
there could be isolated pockets of strong wind gusts and svr hail
along and east of I-49 through sunrise.

Streaming showers are developing between LCH and Ft. Polk. These
could be the CAPE-robbing showers seen on recent guidance which
would further limit severe potential for the line when it does
arrive.

...

Radar is quiet... too quiet at this hour. But to the north, there is
a broken, semi-congealed cluster of showers and thunderstorms
stretching from west to east along the I-20 corridor. West of the LA
state line, cells which were once in a line have broken into
discrete, weakening cells. To the east, there is more of that
congealed line-look of a cold-pooled QLCS.

Those storms on the Texas side are expected to taper off and
evaporate before reaching Jasper/Newton. In the event they maintain
life, they should only amount to a few sprinkles in northern
portions of the counties.

The cluster to the east will continue moving south and east along
the eastern edge of weak ridging situated over the northwest Gulf
and down along a moisture boundary following this same arc following
the Atchafalaya. The line should maintain the weakening trend seen
over this preceding hour as it nears the nrn edge of
Vernon/Rapides/Avoyelles parishes around roughly 200 to 300 AM LT,
but a few embedded segments may still hold on to some stronger wind
segments and or large hail cores as the cluster clips down into
Lower Acadiana thru sunrise. While mesoanalysis is analyzing SBCIN
in the -50 to -75 J/kg, plenty to keep a line like this in check,
majority of this convective cluster is elevated, not surface- based.
Thus, storms are able to tap into a slightly higher reserve of CAPE
off the sfc; the HRRR keeps a fetch of 1900 to 2200 MUCAPE within
the corridor of anticipated travel.

Even now, watching storm evolution via the SHV radar, a very evident
outflow boundary is outracing even the stronger congealed segment of
storms south of SHV moving southeast. This could be the start of the
line ultimately dying on its way through the heart of LA. The
outflow is also helping to nudge updrafts over the low cap, so even
though there is outflow, cells are doing their best to catch up with
it.

I mention that to say, while there is now some increasing confidence
for storm placement and timing, forecaster confidence for intensity
and impacts down and east of I-49 remains low. Plan for gusts up to
30 to 50 MPH in the immediate cenLA area with a general decrease as
the system slides south.

Some guidance also pops off some cells across the I-10 corridor in
the hours just short of sunrise. Which we are beginning to see some
evidence of on KPOE radar. These are sfc based and so are bubbling
under the cap. Not anticipating issues from these showers, rather,
they may serve to absorb some CAPE and help to limit things as well.
In the event any of these updrafts overcomes the standing cap, there
could be a brief period of strong winds and hail with these cells as
they lift north.

After the system moves through, there will be some remaining local
light rainfall which should end rather quickly. Majority of the day
should largely be warm and dry otherwise.

There is signal for another weather system to deflect across the
same-ish corridor along the northern fringe of mid level ridging
tomorrow evening (tis the MCS season!) but this time coverage and
intensity is not expected.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Ceilings will range from IFR in the vicinity of a cluster
of thunderstorms near LFT and ARA to MVFR at LCH and BPT to VFR at
AEX this morning. These storms will continue pushing slowly to the
southeast and are expected to end at LFT and ARA no later than 14Z.

Ceilings will gradually climb to VFR area wide by around 17Z where
they will remain through the early evening. Ceilings are expected to
fall to MVFR and possibly IFR after 04Z this evening. Away from
storms, consistent light southerly winds between 6-11 knots will
prevail through the day becoming variable after 01Z this evening.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Ridging over the west Gulf will keep most shower and storm activity
at bay for the coming days. However, a thunderstorm cluster expected
to move into the Atchafalaya Basin this morning may carry on south
and clip portions of Vermilion Bay and or the nearshore waters to
the south. Marine interests in eastern waters should be weather
aware.

Otherwise, low seas and moderate onshore winds will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An area of disorganized showers and storms is set to move into
portions of central Louisiana tonight. Some storms may be strong or
severe with strong winds and heavy downpours possible from central
LA down through Lower Acadiana. Rainfall totals up to 0.50 inches
are possible along a tight corridor from I-49, east.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
this same region Sunday afternoon and evening.

Warm, humid conditions are anticipated otherwise.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...66